3 lessons from Eye on the Market 20th Anniversary Edition
Sources: PIIE; Bloomberg Finance L.P. Data as of June 11, 2025. Indices used: XAU Curncy; MXWOU Index; SPY US EQUITY; DXY Index. Events from PIIE post inauguration.
This bar chart shows absolute return on tariff event days for several asset classes. On 1-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.3%, USD was 0.6%, Gold was 0.6%, S&P500 was 0.7%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.9%, European Equities was 1.3%. On 4-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.2%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 0.9%, Gold was 1.0%, S&P500 was 0.7%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.0%, European Equities was 1.1%. On 5-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.5%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.4%, Gold was 0.9%, S&P500 was 0.4%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.1%, European Equities was 0.1%. On 10-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.0%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 0.3%, Gold was 1.6%, S&P500 was 0.7%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.2%, European Equities was 0.9%. On 13-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.6%, Gold was 0.8%, S&P500 was 1.1%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.6%, European Equities was 1.7%. On 21-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.4%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.2%, Gold was 0.1%, S&P500 was 1.7%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.0%, European Equities was 0.1%. On 25-Feb U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 0.3%, Gold was 1.2%, S&P500 was 0.5%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.1%, European Equities was 0.1%. On 1-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.2%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 0.8%, Gold was 1.2%, S&P500 was 1.8%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.4%, European Equities was 1.7%. On 4-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.3%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.9%, Gold was 0.9%, S&P500 was 1.2%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.2%, European Equities was 2.9%. On 6-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.2%, Gold was 0.3%, S&P500 was 1.8%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.5%, European Equities was 0.5%. On 12-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.2%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.2%, Gold was 0.6%, S&P500 was 0.5%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.6%, European Equities was 1.0%. On 25-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.1%, Gold was 0.3%, S&P500 was 0.2%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.6%, European Equities was 1.1%. On 26-Mar U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.2%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.3%, USD was 0.3%, Gold was 0.0%, S&P500 was 1.2%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.5%, European Equities was 1.2%. On 2-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.4%, Gold was 0.7%, S&P500 was 0.6%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.0%, European Equities was 0.5%. On 3-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.9%, USD was 1.7%, Gold was 0.6%, S&P500 was 4.9%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.6%, European Equities was 3.6%. On 4-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 1.0%, USD was 0.9%, Gold was 2.5%, S&P500 was 5.9%, World ex U.S. Equities was 5.5%, European Equities was 4.3%. On 5-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 1.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 1.0%, USD was 0.2%, Gold was 1.8%, S&P500 was 0.2%, World ex U.S. Equities was 5.6%, European Equities was 5.2%. On 8-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.3%, Gold was 0.0%, S&P500 was 1.6%, World ex U.S. Equities was 2.7%, European Equities was 2.7%. On 9-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.1%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.1%, Gold was 3.3%, S&P500 was 10.5%, World ex U.S. Equities was 1.3%, European Equities was 3.0%. On 10-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 2.0%, Gold was 3.0%, S&P500 was 4.4%, World ex U.S. Equities was 5.0%, European Equities was 4.5%. On 14-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.7%, USD was 0.5%, Gold was 0.8%, S&P500 was 1.0%, World ex U.S. Equities was 2.3%, European Equities was 2.5%. On 29-Apr U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.2%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.0%, USD was 0.2%, Gold was 0.8%, S&P500 was 0.6%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.3%, European Equities was 0.1%. On 8-May U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.5%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.1%, USD was 1.0%, Gold was 1.7%, S&P500 was 0.7%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.6%, European Equities was 1.2%. On 13-May U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.5%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.9%, USD was 0.7%, Gold was 2.2%, S&P500 was 4.0%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.3%, European Equities was 2.1%. On 3-Jun U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.0%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.5%, Gold was 0.8%, S&P500 was 0.6%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.3%, European Equities was 0.2%. On 4-Jun U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.6%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.4%, Gold was 0.6%, S&P500 was 0.0%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.8%, European Equities was 0.6%. On 11-Jun U.S. IG Bonds return was 0.3%, U.S. HY Bonds was 0.2%, USD was 0.5%, Gold was 0.9%, S&P500 was 0.3%, World ex U.S. Equities was 0.2%, European Equities was 0.5%. There are two dashed lines encasing April 3 to April 10, highlighting market returns post liberation day and pre 90-day pause.
link
